Behavioral Finance2023-09-13T14:52:35-05:00

Behavioral Finance and Economics

The Rogue Wave of Reality: Confronting Narrative Bias in Business and Life

Imagine sitting on the edge of a dock gazing across a dark blue ocean. Each wave crashing at your feet represents a moment in your life, fleeting and irreplaceable. Time, like each wave, is both abundant and finite. It's a resource we often take for granted, yet it's the most precious one we possess. Every second that ticks by is a moment we don’t get back, an opportunity to make a choice, take action, or savor. How we choose to spend our time defines the very essence of our lives. This past spring I focused on my own time just [...]

By |September 6th, 2024|Behavioral Finance|0 Comments

The Cost of Comfort – 8 Examples of Ambiguity Bias In Our Financial Decisions

The Cost of Comfort - 8 Examples of Ambiguity Bias In Our Financial Decisions Ambiguity bias is our natural inclination to prefer the familiar option over the unknown, even when the latter may offer equal or better outcomes. The Ellsberg Paradox: Balls and Urns This cognitive bias was first highlighted by Daniel Ellsberg in 1961 through his thought experiment involving two urns: one with a known 50/50 mix of red and black balls, and another with an unknown mix of red and black balls.  The folks in Ellsberg's study consistently chose to bet on the urn with the known [...]

By |June 26th, 2024|Behavioral Finance|0 Comments

Pull Anchor: How Anchoring Bias Can Sink or Save Your Investment Portfolio

As a dedicated saver turned professional investor, I’ve come to recognize the importance of making rational, data-driven investment decisions.  In this pursuit, understanding cognitive and behavioral biases has become critical.  My latest learnings have been around anchoring bias, one of the 315 behavioral biases I’ve found to be pervasive in my daily role managing HIT Capital, and advising super savers. Anchoring bias refers to our tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we receive about a specific topic.  This "anchor" overly influences how we perceive all subsequent data thereafter.   I will delve into a specific [...]

By |May 2nd, 2024|Behavioral Finance|0 Comments

15 Examples of Adverse Selection

Adverse Selection Bias is when one person in a transaction has more information than the other.  It is a specific subset of selection bias and has recently been on my mind.  A couple weeks ago, in my investment research for HIT Capital I found a stock growing 25% a year and trading at a P/E of 5.  To translate that into English, I found a stock trading 4x cheaper and growing 8x faster than the average US company.  But in my next level of research, I learned the stock’s largest owner, who owns 41% of the stock, was selling [...]

By |February 5th, 2024|Behavioral Finance|0 Comments

A Two-Decade Reflection on Happiness and the Age Positivity Effect

A Two-Decade Reflection on Happiness and the Age Positivity Effect As I reflect on my own life journey, I realize that my pursuit of happiness is still evolving.  Initially, my goals were about me, as I focused on personal achievements like earning a degree, finding love, and competing professionally. Later my goals began to include others, like achieving financial independence for my family, and creating a business.  Now my  focus is just as much on me as on others, like supporting my wife’s mission to help our local school, growing the HIT family's wealth, and helping my kids learn. [...]

By |December 6th, 2023|Behavioral Finance|0 Comments

11 Examples of the Affect Heuristic, Why overthink it? Just follow your gut

Imagine strolling through your favorite supermarket on a Sunday evening after finishing a game of soccer with your friends. You're worn out, hungry, and the air is filled with the tempting aroma of freshly cooked pastries. As you pass the second vendor he is frying up some crackling crispy pork, your mouth waters at the thought of biting into it. Your stomach is screaming "Yes!" and before you even have a chance to weigh the pros and cons, you find yourself buying some. This instinctive, visceral response is a prime example of the affect heuristic, a mental shortcut that [...]

By |October 9th, 2023|Behavioral Finance|0 Comments